The Retail Landscape Spring Outlook 2011

The good news for local merchants is that reports have the larger economy improving. Locally, the 330 looks like it will be open for travel by the 4th of July instead of late in the fall as scheduled. Merchants are still closing their stores for good at a rate that is, I'm sure, unprecedented.

I am actually looking for more retail closures in Big Bear Lake prior to the summer season which really doesn't start in earnest until the 4th of July.

Open for Business

Sugarpine Bake Shop is opening a second location in the Village on Village Dr. next to Shirt Shanty. It's the former Village Cookie Shop. Opening looks like maybe Memorial Day. Good luck guys!


Cowboy Fancy, the new venture by long time Village Business operator Paul Ortuno. Like the name says, western ware and his horsemanship training is on the menu. The new store is on Village Dr. next to Hunter Hall's. Opening is looking like early July. Best of luck to the Ortuno's!


Club Bombay has posted it's ABC notice in the window. Another bar in the Village between the Himalayan Restaurant and the new AV Nightclub. Can you say moratorium?


AV Nightclub opened on May 2, 2011 in the former Pub on Village Dr. It is blue inside.


Le Dolce Vita says they are opening soon. On Village Dr across from Stillwells/Northwoods Resort. Beer and Wine on sale at a public place.



Space Available


Starbucks Coffee is closing its Village Store on May 20, 2011. My source at Starbucks says it is due to general low store revenues. This same store survived the closing of 600 under performing stores in 2008. This was "my" Starbucks. Who knew three Starbucks in Big Bear would be too many?

Simply Irresistible on Village Dr has vacated and the space is for lease.


Children's Closet has vacated and the space on Village Dr. is for lease.


Village Theater South on Village Dr. is for sale (real estate only) approx 9000 sq ft. older building. The listing is asking under 1 million. Contact Tom Benson at Sothebys.


Several new 'cubes' will be available soon in the Christmas Mart on Pine Knot. Maybe 3 will have frontage on the courtyard. All spaces have lots of natural light and share new common restrooms. Stop by and take a look. Contact Monty at the Christmas Mart.

Another Village Shop Fades to Black

The Home Décor shop Simply Irresistible has shut down operations and vacated the space on Village Dr. in the Village. The owner had opened almost 2 years ago in the same space of the former Wildwood Gallery, a long time Village fine art and gift store.

Children's Closet Closes Village Dr. Store

The latest casualty of the greater economic downturn or 2009-2011 is the Children's Closet. Long time Village Clothing and gift store on Village Dr., the business was listed for sale most of 2010 with no buyers coming forward. This will add to the commercial space available inventory in the Village putting even more downward pressure on rents.

Recently Village Dr. businesses have asked the Improvement Agency to please do something for West Village Dr. when considering improvements for the Village.

2011 Business Outlook is Bleak for Local Retailers

My sense of what is happening in the local marketplace is no less than gut-wrenching. Even with all the "things are getting better" in the media, our reality is that local stores are closing.

Frustrated and a little bitter is the sense you get from statements made in the Grizzly article dated 2/23/11 ( Moonridge closing ), by Mike Gray, the owner of Wild Wings on Moonridge Rd.

Mike is not alone in his frustration. Neither is he alone in his sense of pending doom when looking at the horizon. It's a common theme when you talk to almost any small business owner these days. Yes, even those in the Village.

As for his complaint of a lack of identify or vision for the community, I disagree vigorously. That is an easy out and I hear it all the time and it's is just untrue. As far back as the 80's consultants and citizen groups have repeatedly come to the out-of-this-world conclusion that Big Bear Lake is a 4 season resort that serves visitors as it's primary (only) industry. Even in the 80's and as recently as last year, subsequent studies have come up with the same thing. All the reports have agreed that we under serve our customers when we are busy and struggle to survive when we are not busy. All the conclusions have been the same.. We need to make infrastructure improvements to provide a better customer experience when we are busy, and better develop our retail marketplace including restaurants, hotels and amenities to better compete with other destinations in the area.

For several years business owners have been urging the City Council to take action to support our local economy with new and fresh marketing, re-branding and easing of development code regulations that would allow the Big Bear Lake Marketplace to better compete with other destination marketplaces in Southern California. To spend improvement agency dollars for what they were intended for.. to make improvements and better the local economy.


Specific language has been used by me and others to focus on economic development. One clear need is to establish a fully authorized economic development commission to set goals for our survival and our future. To create a path to implement changes and guide the necessary spending to meet these goals. Other communities do this.


In March 2011 it will be two years since City Manager Jeff Matthieu responded to the Village Business Association and Charlie Brewster's plea for economic development and said.. "We’ll see what we can attack in a powerful way". I'm embarrassed to tell folks what we have attacked at all.


The comments by Mike Gray have nothing new to add to the perception by Big Bear Lake small business’s that the City has failed to take any meaningful action that would have any chance to improve the immediate reality that continues to decimate our local economy. To my knowledge, there is still no plan to even address economic development.


Here are some of the most visible business closings over the past year or so.


The Vintage Restaurant. Big Bear Lake Central
Papa Jack's BBQ. Big Bear Lake Central
Bear Mountain Trading. Moonridge
Lakeside Home Decor. (Downsized to the Village) Moonridge
Friends Salon. Moonridge
Tradewinds Shop. Village
Blondie's Bar and Grille. Village
Pages in Time. Village
Grizzly Mountain Gourmet. Village
Michelle's Deli. Village
Alexandria's Dress shop. Village
Beary Crafty. Village (formerly Anything but Ordinary). Village
Kenai's Korner. Village
Heart of the West. Village
Edelweiss Books. Village
The Pub. Village
Big Bear Souvenir. Village
Equada Outfitters. Village

Economic Development, Low Income Housing and Elections

Business failures too many to mention, chronic commercial vacancies, home and business property foreclosures everywhere you look. Drive around town and that’s what you’ll see, if you’re looking. Yes, there is the slower economy, but it’s a fact our local retail economy has been in serious decline since before the end of the home building boom in 2007. Yes, there has been some new commercial development in the past decade, but no economic growth in retail and with all the private home rentals, the lodging sector is a mess. There is unlimited potential for improvement of our tourism based local economy.

The success of our community is measurable by the quality of life we can offer residents and the vitality of our local businesses, the level of permanent, year-round employment in good pay jobs and the level of income local employment provides. Whether you’re a skilled tradesman, line cook, hospitality worker, day care giver, mechanic, shop keeper or accountant, we are all connected to and reliant on our local economy.

I applaud the City Council for recent action through the City’s Redevelopment Agency implementing our Façade and Sign Improvement Program. The Program grants Redevelopment Agency funds for qualifying Commercial Property Improvements. This is long overdue and is a good example of the things we can do and are at long last, getting done. Spending some of the millions of dollars in our Redevelopment Agency Fund incentivizing property owners to update storefronts is one reason the taxpayers voted to form the agency more than 20 years ago. However, this and the other programs recently put into place to aid small business will not by themselves bring about a more robust local economy. Our redevelopment goals need to be part of a greater economic development plan. We can improve our economic reality in a meaningful way, and maintain our environment and lifestyle standards, for the long term.

Absence of a clear vision for the future and the lack of community economic development goals allow us to be endlessly engaged in every issue that would be addressed in a good plan. Hopefully, a good plan and excellent communication would minimize the endless debates or at least make some development less contentious. The absence of a plan allows us to become engaged to distraction with hot-button issues like low income housing, private home rentals, and other development and quality of life issues instead of focusing on needed improvements and meeting goals that would benefit the entire community.

Economic development will require focus. Results will mean meeting clear goals we set for underpinning a vibrant small business community, creating good pay jobs for those struggling to provide for families, and creating opportunity for our young people that will allow them to contribute and earn a good living in the community they grew up in. This plan needs to reflect our local values and should be crafted by those with concerns and experience in business, finance and the environment. A citizen led plan, not one stamped out by bureaucrats and administrators.

A comprehensive plan for the future is the key to any real success. Our plan needs to be led by economic development goals, dovetailed with our environmental needs, aesthetic and lifestyle values and governed by our available resources and ultimate capacity.

To force low income housing development in advance of a comprehensive plan that includes clear goals for economic development seems to me a mistake and a symptom of our failure to adequately plan. This can be corrected.

Continued piecemeal rezoning and placement of low income housing to meet State housing law in lieu of fitting housing into a well thought out master plan will be detrimental to our future success. Big Bear Lake has very limited and finite land available for critical uses. Low income housing is just one need. No rezoning of commercial land should be considered without equal rezoning to replace the commercial zoned inventory.
Before the City Council election in November I would like to hear clearly, from each candidate, that they have the ability and the will to state and uphold a policy that favors the community by committing to economic development. I believe most all folks will be able to understand the need to plan our future. The City Council can put economic development and comprehensive planning for the future on the fast track, and empower our citizens to take part in their own futures with the establishment of an Economic Development Commission made up of non-elected individuals that don’t serve on other commissions or agencies.

Why Big Bear's Economic Development needs to be a Citizen Led Model

The Redevelopment Wheels are turning in Big Bear Lake and the opportunity for local businesses to prosper and grow are real. More and better jobs are key but growth must be balanced on our meeting economic goals reached for the folks who live and work in our community.

What might make sense for Big Bear might not be attractive to corporate developers and investors. What we need to avoid at any cost is repeating the same strategies other Resort Communities have implemented with negative results in categories other than bottom line results.

More on Vail's Public Relations Problems with it's locals from the Denver Post's Steve Raabe:

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_14857508

Commercial Real Estate Market Woes are Plenty

In a recent Park City Record article, a commercial banker states that Nationally, commercial real estate values are off more than 40% from their highs (probably a couple of years ago) and relating vacancy and reduced commercial rents as potential exposure for Community Banks holding commercial mortgages which will be coming due between right now and the next couple of years.

Big Bear Lake would seem to me to have quite a bit in common with the Resort Community of Park City, Utah including the slow economy and the effects of a recession on its Retail and Real Estate Markets.

I just saw a large retail space for rent in the local paper for $.30 / sq. ft. This property could definitely qualify as a chronic vacancy (more than one year) as do many of the current available commercial vacancies in the City of Big Bear Lake.

More from the Park City Record below.

http://www.parkrecord.com/ci_14391742

Outlook for 2010 is Serious for Small Business

With City TOT for the 3 qtr 2009 reporting a decrease in lodging of about 7% compared to the same period in 2008, sales tax revenues will likely follow. The recession of 2009 will certainly become the recession of 2010 as Valley Merchants continue to endure the recession's pain with no relief in sight.

Columnist Jan Norman on the outlook for small business in 2010: Small Business Outlook Small businesses across the country are hunkered down and see nothing on the horizon to alter the current trends in retail sales figures and business climate.

Throwing in the towel locally late in November, Alexandra's Emporium on Village Dr and the Super Bear Arcade become the latest casualties of extreme economic condition and the cold reality of our local marketplace. Stubborn vacancies are certainly an issue, in the Village and elsewhere with thousands of square feet of commercial/retail space available.

The winter of 2010 has the makings of being a special kind of harsh for local small business.

September 22 IA Meeting: Will the City Council Sell the Village?

On September 22. 2009 at 8:30 AM at the Northwoods Resort, the Big Bear Lake Improvement Agency and the Planning Commission will be presented 9 more Low Income Housing Developments proposed by prospective development partners. In the Meeting Agenda dated 9/15/09, the Improvement Agency states it has determined where to get the best advise on where, Low Income Housing (LIH) is constructed in our city. That advise, and proposals will be heard from the developers who will ultimately profit from the federal and city funds, tax deferments and tax credits sold off to large financial institutions for construction funds.


http://www.citybigbearlake.com/documents/IAagenda092209.pdf


I have asked around, and to date, have yet to hear of any public involvement by any citizen from any of our many neighborhoods, business groups or organizations in determining where LIH might work in our city. Apparently we are asking developers where they would like to build. While we have a zoning map, it is clear the IA will implement re-zoning to meet a quota instead working to a plan that would make best use of our limited resources, and community infrastructure.

The pitfall of this latest city agenda is that there is no plan and any decisions we make approving these Low Income Housing Projects (LIHP's) will forever limit our ability to successfully craft a plan that meets even the basic guidelines and recommendations set forth in our General Plan of 1999.



As the IA has already committed it's entire 5.2 million set aside for Low Income Housing, (Knickerbocker Rd., The Crossings) the question is, where will the "funds available" advertised to the LIH development industry come from. The answer is that the IA will borrow against our future property taxes in order to make contributions equal to the Knickerbocker Development to quickly meet State mandates. All this before any City Master Development Plan can be formed with public involvement, to hell with the outcome. Big Bear Lake residents and businesses will be paying for these developments long after the City Council accountable for poor planning decisions and our top city administrators move on to greener pastures.


The threat to the Village is real with high density low income housing being proposed that would dominate the landscape and forever limit the growth of our Village Marketplace. The re-zoning and dumping hundreds of residential Low Income Housing units in the Village is poor planning on any level. The City's facilitating of these proposals is extremely risky and threatens the vitality of our retail economy. I truly regret that the city took this approach in an effort to meet current LIH quotas after 25 years of letting time pass without planning for this day.

Adding millions of dollars of debt to existing IA liabilities (that must be paid back by the year 2036) should be looked at very closely and perhaps by an independent firm, with new citizen-led oversight.

Clear and Focused Goals

I was just forwarded a recent email from City Councilor Michael Karp, addressed to "Citizens" that in my opinion, punctuates the one major point that is more or less the root of most all other reasons our Retail Marketplace pales in comparison to so many communities in Southern California and the greater region (destination resort communities) that have showcased their Merchants, Restaurants and Lodges to attract shoppers and visitors from a very wide region. The increased retail activity resulting from effective marketing of the new retail offerings generate jobs, incomes, community pride and the needed sales tax revenues that provide budgetary growth allowing local governments to provide community infrastructure improvements that we all seem to desire. Some communities call this an ‘economic development plan’.

That one point Mr. Karp divulges is that 'Retail' is viewed by more than just a few, as nothing but a backdrop for our Alpine Recreation Sector and the City's bottomless residential property tax well and is not given the respect it deserves as a major source for economic growth, adding jobs and providing incomes for locals that will not require any additional impact of the forest we all enjoy.

But without a strong unified voice, and clear and focused goals for improvements to our Marketplace, Big Bear Retail Businesses can only expect that the status quo will surely prevail and not much will ever change. If we simply leave it to the City Council, City Employees and those that many of us think are 'in charge' of such decisions and policy that could successfully enhance a retail business climate and allow prosperity and growth for our many struggling shops and restaurants, we can expect no more than we currently have.

Like Mr. Karp, I too urge Retail Business and Property Owners, their employees and families to attend the visioning meeting on Aug 31, and speak up for our ailing Marketplace. We should all seek to make real improvements that will truly benefit our community. Don’t allow our goals to be bogged down with a lot of new and restrictive ordinances that have been the source of so much disinvestment and disappointment over the past 20 some years of slow, painful and inadequate retail development in our commercial districts. Business and property owners must join forces and lend their collective experience to the efforts at hand that can shape our future, and see that well intended politicians understand what elements actually drive a retail marketplace and to set, and meet, clear and focused goals.

City Manager gives/gets $36,000 Pay Raise

As the Executive Director of the Big Bear Lake Improvement Agency, Big Bear Lake City Manager Jeff Mathieu authored the Agenda report recommending the Improvement Agency pay the City Manager (himself) $36,000 in addition to his City Managers Pay.

Our City Manager is already The Improvement Agency Director's Boss (Lyle Haynes) and the Executive Director of the Improvement Agency itself. The Agenda Report in the BBL City Council's Regular Meeting Agenda (8/24/09 item 1.9) states the additional tasks Mr. Mathieu might undertake for the additional pay. This would certainly leave the Improvement Agency Director free to ....? I'm not sure just what. In my opinion, most everything listed as additional duties for the City Manager, one would expect to be done as either the Director of the Improvement Agency or possibly as the boss of a Director of the Agency.

In a recent Big Bear Grizzly poll, it seems the majority of the folks that responded thinks that our City Government is out of touch with the community. This kind of unanimous spending by the City Council would appear to give that opinion a lot of credence, as many folks are doing more than ever just to keep a job, never mind the lavish increase in lifestyle for just showing up to work.

I don't have a real problem with the City Manager. He is entitled to everything he successfully negotiates. I do have a problem with the lack of representation on the taxpayers behalf in these type of negotiations and the lack of measurable goals set to the salaries we pay our City Employees. These are property tax dollars set aside for real redevelopment that we are currently slathering about City Hall. With no set goals or even a vague sense of direction on what we are setting out to accomplish within our Redevelopment Districts, there is no way to justify the expenditure, or determine if we are getting what we are paying for.

Here is the Grizzly's take on the pay raise. http://tinyurl.com/l3f38p

Here is the Agenda. Scroll to page 188 for the specific language in the pay raise. http://tinyurl.com/nvosna

Updating the Village Specific Plan 2009

The City of Big Bear Lake is holding a VILLAGE COMMUNITY PLANNING MEETING on August 31 at 6:00 PM at the Performing Arts Center. Call 909-866-5831 for more information.

Tag line on the Chamber of Commerce email is HELP THE CITY UPDATE THE VILLAGE SPECIFIC PLAN.

Along with a much needed update, Property and Business owners need to develop a strategy for implementing the Village Specific Plan in a measurable and steady progression. Simply having a specific plan for any area is just an exercise without specific goals set by the community and our elected leaders as evidenced by the progress made by the city and the current VSP.

This new effort is commendable but has to be sealed with an actionable plan to make necessary improvements and allow development that will allow us to better compete in the regional retail marketplace.

Traffic Round-a-Bouts for Moonridge?

Several options for reducing speeds on Moonridge were delineated at the Moonridge Visioning Meeting, held recently at Hofert Hall, by the City of Big Bear Lake Improvement Agency the Consultant hired by the agency to assemble all the comments given by property owners and business operators from the Moonridge Redevelopment District.

Scenarios including different mixes of potential Hotels, Condos, and Commercial developments from Big Bear Blvd. all the way to the Moonridge 'Y' where the agency's land planners envisioned a hotel property being constructed.

The link below is a historical summary of Sadona Arizona's current project to install Round-a-Bouts. I think Dick Kun's neck hair may be twitching.

Vision is key to success. Good luck to all my friends in Moonridge!

http://www.sedona.biz/why-roundabouts-sedona0109.htm

SoCal Small Business Feeling the Pain

In Big Bear Lake, you can see it from the street. Lots of empty commercial space gone vacant. We get the question from customers all the time.. what's going on? The economic down turn has certainly added to the woes of many mom and pop's here in the valley. Business Columnist Jan Norman has some staggering facts as to just what is happening. Click the link below for some insight.

Jan Norman on business woes.

The Buxton Report

The Buxton Report was commissioned by the City of Big Bear Lake to evaluate our local retail marketplace. The original report was to be released as early as Sept. 2008.

A special meeting was posted on July 10 by the city to hold a workshop around the report on July 13, 2009 at 9:00 AM in the morning.

The current version of the report is available @ http://www.citybigbearlake.com/documents/IA071309sp.pdf

I fear this report and the data provided (Buxton Report dated July 13, 2009) may be interpreted by some as “Wow! We must be doing ok!” when in fact we are not. Or that the report says we need a Wal-Mart, when in fact it does not.

What the report fails to do is factor in the complex and unique retail marketplace that has evolved over our long and rich history, built, for the most part, by the seat of our pants. Our marketplace has developed and adapted from many directions and from the weight of many forces, but the common fuel for continued success has always been (as articulated in the Buxton Report) revenues from tourism.

What is not articulated in the report, but needs to a part of the conversation, is the actual demand for goods and services represented in the number of visitors to the Valley each year. Nor does the report estimate projected leakage of sales as we are able to increase tourism on weekdays and in shoulder seasons.

In my opinion, the best source of council for determining the need for infrastructure investments to our retail marketplace has always been from the many merchants, lodge and restaurant owners who have put in so many years of hard work to maintain the happy face of Big Bear Lake for the millions of visitors we greet each year. These valued members of the community know what no consultant can, and I am sure would be more than willing to advise the Council and it’s staff given the opportunity.

I believe all potential for our existing small businesses to prosper and for the growth of our retail sector to become a provider, instead of a backdrop, will be in our willingness to compete in the region at a much higher level, with focused goals, around a significant investment in retail infrastructure, and amenities provided our visitors, taking advantage of our natural landscape and quaint, small town atmosphere.
The report does clearly identify the excellent job our local retailers do in meeting the needs of their customers as outline in the leakage/surplus analysis and clearly identifies our target demographic (page 12 of the report) as one that is older, wealthier and a little more sophisticated, than to date, many of us have understood.

Village Merchants Planning First Wine Walk Event

Village Merchants are gathering steam to host the first Wine Walk Event in the Village. A number of Merchants have agreed to pitch in to host the event. The first event would benefit the local Meals on Wheels efforts.

Village Merchants have made a formal proposal to the VBA for their support to aid in making the first event happen this summer.

The event will be a self guided tour form Northwoods Resort to Pine Knot Marina and is one of many events the retail community is actively trying to put into place in order to better compete in the regional marketplace by attracting more get-a-way and leisure travel customers from throughout SoCal.

Rassmussen takes temperature of Small Business

The confidence of 20 million small business owners takes a dip for the worse. Cash flow problems on the rise. More from Jan Norman on Small Business outlook: http://jan.freedomblogging.com/2009/05/26/business-owners-turn-more-pessimistic/14481/

A tip for our City Council as they wrap up the 09-10 budget.. Park City, UT has found themselves a bit short of projected revenues as major lodging interests file for bankruptcy before paying local bed taxes (The Block right here in Big Bear Lake). Might there be more on the horizon? TOT is a major percentage of our General Fund.

Spring Brings Flowers and more Business Closures

Some more negative movement in retail and commercial vacancies in April 2009 include these Big Bear Lake Storefronts: 1. Friendz Salon (had recently relocated to smaller space) Moonridge Rd, 2. Edelweiss Books on Village Dr., 3. Big Bear Souvenir and Gift (had recently relocated to smaller space) Pine Knot Ave., 4. Burger King on Big Bear Blvd., Big Bear Real Estate Village Dr. Office, Cool Cabins Village Dr. Office and the 5. Mineral Shop on Village Dr. has closed and vacated the space. 6. Scrapbooking Stampede (recently moved to Blvd from Moonridge) has closed and vacated the space in Summit Plaza.



On the Recently Rented Front: 1. The Chrome Stop has reopened on Red Ant Hill and Mill Creek, 2. The Kite Factory has reopened on the other side of the Blvd at Alden. 3. Forrest Farms Market and Deli has taken a much smaller space in the Verizon Plaza with Sandy's Sports Bar and Bear Valley Printing. 4. Get the Burger will reopen in the former Sushi Ai at Big Bear Blvd. and Fox Farm.

Fast Food Fatality

The Big Bear Lake Fast Food Franchise Burger King, on Big Bear Blvd., Closed and Boarded Up. This unattractive reality is just another in our ever growing list of retail vacancies. I hope the upcoming economic summit hosted by the Big Bear Lake Chamber of Commerce focuses on real strategy and plans to combat the 3 year decline in retail revenues the City has seen and promotes an emergency plan of action by civic and business leaders to stem the growing numbers of business failures in the valley. The questions and answers should pertain to; what are we doing? who is doing it? and when is it going to be done? What we don't need is eight hours of how we can all get along while going broke.

Arissa Turner on Burger King:
http://www.bigbeargrizzly.net/articles/2009/05/06/news/doc4a00cdbb182f4998857814.txt

Orange County Retail Vacancies up 70% year to date

Jeff Collins on Orange County Retail Vacancies:

O.C. retail vacancies jump 70 percent