The Retail Landscape Spring Outlook 2011

The good news for local merchants is that reports have the larger economy improving. Locally, the 330 looks like it will be open for travel by the 4th of July instead of late in the fall as scheduled. Merchants are still closing their stores for good at a rate that is, I'm sure, unprecedented.

I am actually looking for more retail closures in Big Bear Lake prior to the summer season which really doesn't start in earnest until the 4th of July.

Open for Business

Sugarpine Bake Shop is opening a second location in the Village on Village Dr. next to Shirt Shanty. It's the former Village Cookie Shop. Opening looks like maybe Memorial Day. Good luck guys!


Cowboy Fancy, the new venture by long time Village Business operator Paul Ortuno. Like the name says, western ware and his horsemanship training is on the menu. The new store is on Village Dr. next to Hunter Hall's. Opening is looking like early July. Best of luck to the Ortuno's!


Club Bombay has posted it's ABC notice in the window. Another bar in the Village between the Himalayan Restaurant and the new AV Nightclub. Can you say moratorium?


AV Nightclub opened on May 2, 2011 in the former Pub on Village Dr. It is blue inside.


Le Dolce Vita says they are opening soon. On Village Dr across from Stillwells/Northwoods Resort. Beer and Wine on sale at a public place.



Space Available


Starbucks Coffee is closing its Village Store on May 20, 2011. My source at Starbucks says it is due to general low store revenues. This same store survived the closing of 600 under performing stores in 2008. This was "my" Starbucks. Who knew three Starbucks in Big Bear would be too many?

Simply Irresistible on Village Dr has vacated and the space is for lease.


Children's Closet has vacated and the space on Village Dr. is for lease.


Village Theater South on Village Dr. is for sale (real estate only) approx 9000 sq ft. older building. The listing is asking under 1 million. Contact Tom Benson at Sothebys.


Several new 'cubes' will be available soon in the Christmas Mart on Pine Knot. Maybe 3 will have frontage on the courtyard. All spaces have lots of natural light and share new common restrooms. Stop by and take a look. Contact Monty at the Christmas Mart.

Another Village Shop Fades to Black

The Home Décor shop Simply Irresistible has shut down operations and vacated the space on Village Dr. in the Village. The owner had opened almost 2 years ago in the same space of the former Wildwood Gallery, a long time Village fine art and gift store.

Children's Closet Closes Village Dr. Store

The latest casualty of the greater economic downturn or 2009-2011 is the Children's Closet. Long time Village Clothing and gift store on Village Dr., the business was listed for sale most of 2010 with no buyers coming forward. This will add to the commercial space available inventory in the Village putting even more downward pressure on rents.

Recently Village Dr. businesses have asked the Improvement Agency to please do something for West Village Dr. when considering improvements for the Village.

Commercial Real Estate Market Woes are Plenty

In a recent Park City Record article, a commercial banker states that Nationally, commercial real estate values are off more than 40% from their highs (probably a couple of years ago) and relating vacancy and reduced commercial rents as potential exposure for Community Banks holding commercial mortgages which will be coming due between right now and the next couple of years.

Big Bear Lake would seem to me to have quite a bit in common with the Resort Community of Park City, Utah including the slow economy and the effects of a recession on its Retail and Real Estate Markets.

I just saw a large retail space for rent in the local paper for $.30 / sq. ft. This property could definitely qualify as a chronic vacancy (more than one year) as do many of the current available commercial vacancies in the City of Big Bear Lake.

More from the Park City Record below.

http://www.parkrecord.com/ci_14391742

Outlook for 2010 is Serious for Small Business

With City TOT for the 3 qtr 2009 reporting a decrease in lodging of about 7% compared to the same period in 2008, sales tax revenues will likely follow. The recession of 2009 will certainly become the recession of 2010 as Valley Merchants continue to endure the recession's pain with no relief in sight.

Columnist Jan Norman on the outlook for small business in 2010: Small Business Outlook Small businesses across the country are hunkered down and see nothing on the horizon to alter the current trends in retail sales figures and business climate.

Throwing in the towel locally late in November, Alexandra's Emporium on Village Dr and the Super Bear Arcade become the latest casualties of extreme economic condition and the cold reality of our local marketplace. Stubborn vacancies are certainly an issue, in the Village and elsewhere with thousands of square feet of commercial/retail space available.

The winter of 2010 has the makings of being a special kind of harsh for local small business.

New Retail Shops open in the Village

The Village is still losing ground with vacancies through the last quarter of 2009 with the opening of Allato Gellato on Pine Knot at the Alpine Suites and the Grizzly Mountain Gourmet an upscale food, wine and beer with a deli counter in the old Bear Mountain Coffee store next to Hunter Halls on Village Dr. On the negative side of the chart is the closing of The Pub and Big Bear Souvenir and Gift, both on Pine Knot. More bad news is the buzz that one of the larger Women's Clothing store is going to close before the still illusive Christmas Season begins.

I am certainly looking forward to the opening of the Copper Q, a kitchen and food oriented concept with coffee and pastries in the former Creative Cottage space which went dark almost one year ago. I don't think the "Q" will open before the new year. Best of luck to Kent and Linda as the site is starting to take shape!

Slippery Slope

From Fast Food, the Internet, Big Box, Big Money, Cheap Land, Economic Incentives and everything else under the capitalistic sun that warms us, the competition probably has an advantage over the Big Bear Valley.

A little late in entering the race, (OK, really late) the vision required for the Big Bear Lake Community to really compete in the regional retail marketplace will require the one ingredient that will be the key to each and every success story we will ever read about. Innovation.

Innovation, combined with natural strengths, realistic goal setting and the will to work until one's goals are achieved are the elements of any home run, smash hit, best seller or happy ending. I believe you can apply the same formula to form a successful business plan.

The reality is however, that competition has never been tougher, but the rewards of economic prosperity for families and community will always be worthy of what ever it takes to achieve. How could it not?

I recently read a great article on the cultural aspect of competition and an intangible adversary. Author Jules Pieri on how the "discount Culture" is killing our economy.

Our successful vision will recognize the slippery slope of community planning and require the imagination to incorporate the innovation required to enhance our natural strengths to overcome our adversaries might.

September 22 IA Meeting: Will the City Council Sell the Village?

On September 22. 2009 at 8:30 AM at the Northwoods Resort, the Big Bear Lake Improvement Agency and the Planning Commission will be presented 9 more Low Income Housing Developments proposed by prospective development partners. In the Meeting Agenda dated 9/15/09, the Improvement Agency states it has determined where to get the best advise on where, Low Income Housing (LIH) is constructed in our city. That advise, and proposals will be heard from the developers who will ultimately profit from the federal and city funds, tax deferments and tax credits sold off to large financial institutions for construction funds.


http://www.citybigbearlake.com/documents/IAagenda092209.pdf


I have asked around, and to date, have yet to hear of any public involvement by any citizen from any of our many neighborhoods, business groups or organizations in determining where LIH might work in our city. Apparently we are asking developers where they would like to build. While we have a zoning map, it is clear the IA will implement re-zoning to meet a quota instead working to a plan that would make best use of our limited resources, and community infrastructure.

The pitfall of this latest city agenda is that there is no plan and any decisions we make approving these Low Income Housing Projects (LIHP's) will forever limit our ability to successfully craft a plan that meets even the basic guidelines and recommendations set forth in our General Plan of 1999.



As the IA has already committed it's entire 5.2 million set aside for Low Income Housing, (Knickerbocker Rd., The Crossings) the question is, where will the "funds available" advertised to the LIH development industry come from. The answer is that the IA will borrow against our future property taxes in order to make contributions equal to the Knickerbocker Development to quickly meet State mandates. All this before any City Master Development Plan can be formed with public involvement, to hell with the outcome. Big Bear Lake residents and businesses will be paying for these developments long after the City Council accountable for poor planning decisions and our top city administrators move on to greener pastures.


The threat to the Village is real with high density low income housing being proposed that would dominate the landscape and forever limit the growth of our Village Marketplace. The re-zoning and dumping hundreds of residential Low Income Housing units in the Village is poor planning on any level. The City's facilitating of these proposals is extremely risky and threatens the vitality of our retail economy. I truly regret that the city took this approach in an effort to meet current LIH quotas after 25 years of letting time pass without planning for this day.

Adding millions of dollars of debt to existing IA liabilities (that must be paid back by the year 2036) should be looked at very closely and perhaps by an independent firm, with new citizen-led oversight.

VBA Squares off Against City of Big Bear Lake over More Low Income Housing

In the September 2009 VBA Voice, President Charlie Brewster, in his Presidents Message, expresses his frustration with the lack of progress and the years of pleading with the City regarding improvements in Landscape and Lighting, Parking and Better Pedestrian Connections from the Village to the Lake. Earlier this summer, Village Merchants were awakened during their busiest season to learn a 42 unit government subsidized rental project was being approved that would create a hard boarder for future development of the Village on Knickerbocker at Pennsylvania, adjacent to the Elementary School, just as the large senior housing complex (owned by City Councilor Bill Jahn) has done on the South of the Village.

It seemed to me that at the Public Meetings regarding the hastily approved Knickerbocker Low Income Rental Complex, Residents, Merchants and the City Council (who unanimously approved the project despite pleas by Village Merchants to reconsider the location of the apartments as less than optimal for residents and the vitality of our Retail District) were assured by the Redevelopment Agency Director, that any more low income projects would be made widely know to all and certainly not be clustered in the Village area.


Apparently, the City does not consider the property on Badger and Bartlett (in the Village Specific Plan District) currently zoned Village Retail (the most restrictive zoning intentionally set aside for future retail expansion) to be worthy of mentioning to anybody, even as late as the first public workshop to update the current Village Specific Plan on August 31, 2009, that it is in the planning process for yet more subsidised housing.


As Verizon has already initiated splitting the parcel that they currently occupy, and have the property on Bartlett and on Badger in escrow pending approval of this new low income project, I assume promises have been made to the developer and Verizon as to the outcome of this latest stab by the City, to re-designate the vision and current use of Village property by the City's Redevelopment Agency and City Council.

In his message, Mr. Brewster urges all property owners and businesses to have their opinion heard by filling out his attached petition and making sure it is recognized by the City Council.

VBA Voice: http://tinyurl.com/nld932

ExploreBigBearLake in the Inland Empire Visitors Guide

Big Bear Lake Retail Merchants, Restaurants and Lodges have gotten together to get some exposure off the hill and promote Big Bear Lake as a destination worthy of consideration when it comes to Shopping, Dining or just some high quality Unwinding. The two page ad features the pristine beauty of our alpine landscape that provides an unequaled theme, year round Activities for the 39-55 demographic that seek a clean and healthy atmosphere, and wholesome Entertainment, Dining and Cultural Aspects that appeal to the Leisure Travel visitor. Many of our Fine Dining establishments are showcased on the www.explorebigbearlake.com web site as are over 100 other places in Big Bear Lake that will surely attract weekday as well as weekend visitors and staycationers.

Since inception in 2008, the Primary Goal for Big Bear Lake Retail Merchants, Restaurants and Lodges is the successful promotion of Big Bear Lake as a Leisure Travel Destination and to increase the number of visitors during weekdays and weekends in the shoulder seasons, providing a more consistent demand for our many Retail Oriented Businesses.

Directory and Maps USA from Redlands, CA are the publishers of the Inland Empire Visitors Guide, a full size, glossy magazine format printed piece about 100 pages. The publication is partially funded by the Inland Empire Tourism Council in partnership with the California Travel and Tourism Council.

150,000 Visitors Guides will be printed and distributed for the 12 months at SoCal California Welcome Centers, Chambers of Commerce, Tourism Trade Shows, and Mass Transit Hubs from San Diego to Bakersfield.

An online Visitors Guide will be available at www.visitinlandempire.com.

For information and to learn how you can join the move to improve, contact Tim Breunig at the United Wood Craftsmen Gallery in the Village.

Clear and Focused Goals

I was just forwarded a recent email from City Councilor Michael Karp, addressed to "Citizens" that in my opinion, punctuates the one major point that is more or less the root of most all other reasons our Retail Marketplace pales in comparison to so many communities in Southern California and the greater region (destination resort communities) that have showcased their Merchants, Restaurants and Lodges to attract shoppers and visitors from a very wide region. The increased retail activity resulting from effective marketing of the new retail offerings generate jobs, incomes, community pride and the needed sales tax revenues that provide budgetary growth allowing local governments to provide community infrastructure improvements that we all seem to desire. Some communities call this an ‘economic development plan’.

That one point Mr. Karp divulges is that 'Retail' is viewed by more than just a few, as nothing but a backdrop for our Alpine Recreation Sector and the City's bottomless residential property tax well and is not given the respect it deserves as a major source for economic growth, adding jobs and providing incomes for locals that will not require any additional impact of the forest we all enjoy.

But without a strong unified voice, and clear and focused goals for improvements to our Marketplace, Big Bear Retail Businesses can only expect that the status quo will surely prevail and not much will ever change. If we simply leave it to the City Council, City Employees and those that many of us think are 'in charge' of such decisions and policy that could successfully enhance a retail business climate and allow prosperity and growth for our many struggling shops and restaurants, we can expect no more than we currently have.

Like Mr. Karp, I too urge Retail Business and Property Owners, their employees and families to attend the visioning meeting on Aug 31, and speak up for our ailing Marketplace. We should all seek to make real improvements that will truly benefit our community. Don’t allow our goals to be bogged down with a lot of new and restrictive ordinances that have been the source of so much disinvestment and disappointment over the past 20 some years of slow, painful and inadequate retail development in our commercial districts. Business and property owners must join forces and lend their collective experience to the efforts at hand that can shape our future, and see that well intended politicians understand what elements actually drive a retail marketplace and to set, and meet, clear and focused goals.

Updating the Village Specific Plan 2009

The City of Big Bear Lake is holding a VILLAGE COMMUNITY PLANNING MEETING on August 31 at 6:00 PM at the Performing Arts Center. Call 909-866-5831 for more information.

Tag line on the Chamber of Commerce email is HELP THE CITY UPDATE THE VILLAGE SPECIFIC PLAN.

Along with a much needed update, Property and Business owners need to develop a strategy for implementing the Village Specific Plan in a measurable and steady progression. Simply having a specific plan for any area is just an exercise without specific goals set by the community and our elected leaders as evidenced by the progress made by the city and the current VSP.

This new effort is commendable but has to be sealed with an actionable plan to make necessary improvements and allow development that will allow us to better compete in the regional retail marketplace.

Oh No! Not Another Organaization...

Park City Utah has a permanent population of about 8000. There are a few differences between the Big Bear Valley and Park City but when it comes to potential, I believe we have many advantages over Park City.

Park City does have a very efficient Retail Marketplace with close to $450MM in taxable sales annually. That is considerably more than the City of Big Bear Lake and probably considerably more than our entire trade area.

Another thing they have is 9 business associations, each giving a voice to their own segment and specific needs. Apparently, it works pretty well.

Park City Business Associations:

1. Business Network International: (435) 731-0239
2. Coalville Area Business Association: (435) 336-2391
3. Historic Main Street Business Alliance, Ken Davis, president: (435) 658-9612
4. Park City Restaurant Association, Eileen Dunn, chair: (435) 640-133
5. Park City Women s Business Network: (877) 246-2858
6. Prospector Square Property Owners Association: (435) 645-7888
7. Park City Lodging Association, Terry Whitney: (435) 649-6400
8. Park City Chamber/Bureau: 649-6100
9. Kimball Junction Business Association, Kim McKew: (435) 575-0265

SoCal Bankruptcies Soar in June

Equifax is reporting Southland bankruptcies rose dramatically in June 2009 compared to 2008. Nearly 3000 commercial bankruptcies were filed in Riverside / San Bernardino Counties this past June. That's more than an 80% increase over 2008. Similar numbers were reported for Orange and Los Angeles Counties.

Jan Norman on June Bankruptcies: http://tinyurl.com/prjmma

Traffic Round-a-Bouts for Moonridge?

Several options for reducing speeds on Moonridge were delineated at the Moonridge Visioning Meeting, held recently at Hofert Hall, by the City of Big Bear Lake Improvement Agency the Consultant hired by the agency to assemble all the comments given by property owners and business operators from the Moonridge Redevelopment District.

Scenarios including different mixes of potential Hotels, Condos, and Commercial developments from Big Bear Blvd. all the way to the Moonridge 'Y' where the agency's land planners envisioned a hotel property being constructed.

The link below is a historical summary of Sadona Arizona's current project to install Round-a-Bouts. I think Dick Kun's neck hair may be twitching.

Vision is key to success. Good luck to all my friends in Moonridge!

http://www.sedona.biz/why-roundabouts-sedona0109.htm

SoCal Small Business Feeling the Pain

In Big Bear Lake, you can see it from the street. Lots of empty commercial space gone vacant. We get the question from customers all the time.. what's going on? The economic down turn has certainly added to the woes of many mom and pop's here in the valley. Business Columnist Jan Norman has some staggering facts as to just what is happening. Click the link below for some insight.

Jan Norman on business woes.

So Cal's Summer Vacation Plans

If there is any bright spot in the current economic downturn, it's the fact that many Southern California families are still going to take vacation this summer. AAA says that in fact vacation plans by Auto Club Members are off significantly compared to 2007 & 2008. http://news.aaa-calif.com/pr/aaa/summer-travel-survey-0609.aspx?ncid=6058

And sure there is belt tightening, but of the surveyed, only about 5% more than those surveyed in 2008 said they were going to spend less than last year while on vacation. But when you take into consideration that 40% of those surveyed are going to stay right here in California, there may be a bright spot in the numbers for Big Bear Lake.

Also in the survey, are some interesting hot buttons for vacation planners, something we have been trying to improve on when marketing our own marketplace here in Big Bear Lake.

"When rating highly important reasons for taking their first trip of this summer:

88 percent said the vacation destination was a highly important factor
73 percent cited cost
65 percent said entertainment/recreation
63 percent rated the ease of reaching the destination as highly important
57 percent cited proximity to family/friends
40 percent rated a friend’s/relative’s recommendation as highly important
40 percent cited a special event"

Big Bear Lake rates naturally high in several of these key areas or part of these areas. It would serve Retail Merchants, Lodges and Restaurants well to improve in weaker areas and then heavily promote our marketplace as the ideal vacation and leisure travel destination for Southern California on a permanent basis, all round.

Merchants, Restaurants and Lodges should be putting all their marketing efforts into letting leisure travel demographic know about just how Big Bear Lake fits into what they are looking for in a vacation or get-a-way.

Big Bear Lake Economic Summit

The need for a new marketing and advertising strategy has never been greater for Big Bear Lake Retail Merchants, Restaurants and Lodges. While recovery for the general economy is sure to happen eventually, Big Bear Lake Businesses are suffering. Doors continue to close.

While the general tone for the 2009 Economic Summit, held on June 4, 2009, was a lot of business as usual and offered little to address what is needed or wanted by business, there was some news from the Big Bear Lake Redevelopment Director, Lyle Haynes, with (as far as I know) the first public mention of the possibility of forming Business Improvement Districts for ongoing funding of infrastructure improvements, events and marketing, all in the name of economic development for the City.

Another desperately needed action, to address the Big Bear Lake Development Code, was mentioned briefly.

It was mentioned that for property owners and business to develop properties to meet the best and greatest use and for individual businesses to compete in today's marketplace, serious changes are needed in both the Development Code and the Village Specific Plan. The changes would include density, use, parking and zoning. While this has been an important issue and needs attention, the changes would affect future development of commercial property and does not address anything in the near future.

The Big Bear Lake Resort Association presented current marketing strategy and an overview of scaled back plans for the coming year with their revenues taking a hit as fewer visitors are spending less money with their members this year.

Affordable housing projects were mentioned in the Redevelopment presentation. Both projects currently seeking approval in the Village were mentioned. I for one will aggressively oppose both of these projects based on the location and the irreversible long terms effects they would have on future commercial development and expansion of the Village. There must be some sort of policy set that these types of development should replace existing small and older residential units and be constructed in existing dense residential areas. One good idea that came up was to just let the affordable housing money revert back to the County and let them (the County) construct affordable housing in the unincorporated areas of the Valley.

Rassmussen takes temperature of Small Business

The confidence of 20 million small business owners takes a dip for the worse. Cash flow problems on the rise. More from Jan Norman on Small Business outlook: http://jan.freedomblogging.com/2009/05/26/business-owners-turn-more-pessimistic/14481/

A tip for our City Council as they wrap up the 09-10 budget.. Park City, UT has found themselves a bit short of projected revenues as major lodging interests file for bankruptcy before paying local bed taxes (The Block right here in Big Bear Lake). Might there be more on the horizon? TOT is a major percentage of our General Fund.

Park City Utah

Some interesting facts off the Park City Website.

• Park City was founded as a silver-mining town in 1869. By 1900, it was a booming mining town with 10,000 residents and 100 saloons
• Second largest silver strike in U. S., 1200 miles of mining tunnels under the city; the deepest mining shaft is 2600’ Flagstaff Mountain was the first mining claim in the Park City area; George Hearst owned the Ontario Mine
• Summit County was one of the fastest growing counties in the US during the 1990’s
• Park City population: 8,066 in the City; 21,000 additional in Snyderville Basin
  Elevation: 7000’ at Main Street (ranges from 6500’- 10,000’)
• City Size: 17.6 square miles
• Average Daily Water Consumption: 4. 6 million gallons
  School Population: 4,336 (Fall 2008)
• Assessed Property Valuation: $4,635,372,939 (Primary residences); $5,602,376,327 (Vacation homes)
• Number of Primary Dwelling Unit: 3,179
• Number of Secondary Homes/ Units: 4,773
• Lodging capacity: 23,307(pillow count)
• Gross Taxable Sales: $450 million in City
• Number of Restaurants: 131
• Number of Park City Business Licenses: 1,917
• Number of Retail Store: 286 in Park City & Basin
• Number of City Police Officers: 24 full-time, 16 part-time
• Number of City Employee: 305 full-time equivalents
• Number of Miles of City Roads: 121